Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/9491
Author(s): | Madureira, N. L. |
Date: | 2014 |
Title: | Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock |
Volume: | 39 |
Number: | 4 |
Pages: | 70-93 |
ISSN: | 0172-6404 |
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): | 10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93 |
Keywords: | Energy crisis |
Abstract: | A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed. |
Peerreviewed: | Sim |
Access type: | Open Access |
Appears in Collections: | DH-RI - Artigos em revistas científicas internacionais com arbitragem científica |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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publisher_version_HSR_39_4_Madureira.pdf | 678,96 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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