Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/9491
Autoria: | Madureira, N. L. |
Data: | 2014 |
Título próprio: | Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock |
Volume: | 39 |
Número: | 4 |
Paginação: | 70-93 |
ISSN: | 0172-6404 |
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): | 10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93 |
Palavras-chave: | Energy crisis |
Resumo: | A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed. |
Arbitragem científica: | Sim |
Acesso: | Acesso Aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: | DH-RI - Artigos em revistas científicas internacionais com arbitragem científica |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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publisher_version_HSR_39_4_Madureira.pdf | 678,96 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |
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