Predictors of secondary education completion across Portuguese municipalities: Evidence from the 2009-2018 period

Abstract

Our overriding goal was to understand territorial inequalities regarding secondary school completion by testing which contextual factors and educational resources are associated with their change in high- and low-density Portuguese municipalities. Our analysis covered the time between 2009 and 2018, including both the economic crisis and the economic recovery period. Drawing mostly on publicly available data from 253 municipalities and following a Linear Mixed Model approach, we found that low-density municipalities depicted significantly greater levels of secondary school attainment by 2013 compared to high-density municipalities. Moreover, growing unemployment rates were associated with a reduction in secondary school completion rates across the as- assessed time points. Contrary to our expectations, higher rates of permanent teachers were associated with worse rates of secondary school completion. In addition, we found a significant increase in the rates of secondary school conclusion at higher levels of preschool enrollment among high-density municipalities. Our discussion counteracts the usual overstating of vulnerable territories’ worse educational indicators. We also underline the importance of improving secondary education indicators for reducing structural inequalities in the school-to-work transition in less affluent territories and pinpoint the importance of implementing policies, such as improving access to preschool education in Portuguese high-density municipalities.