Formative phase and spatial diffusion of energy technologies

Abstract

The objective of this research is to identify historical patterns in the formative phases of energy technologies. The formative phase designates the early stage of development (i.e., between the invention and the up-scaling phase) that sets up the conditions for the technology to emerge and penetrate into the market. This phase is particularly relevant in the diffusion of energy innovations because it prepares the technology for widespread growth. So, this investigation aims to develop an operational definition of formative phase to enable comparative technology analysis. The formative processes are firstly identified in the literature of technological innovation system and are then connected to a common set of indicators for characterizing the period of formation of new technologies. These metrics are tested using a comparative energy technology data set, including both supply-side and end-use innovations. The analysis shows that “10% of (estimated) maximum capacity of unit additions” is a good indicator of the real time progress of innovations and completion of the formative phase. This phase normally lasts a couple of decades (20-25 years in average) but it can be faster in the case of less radical innovations. Next step will focus on spatial diffusion of new technologies and the duration of the formative phase in other regions.