Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/31823
Author(s): | Di Serio, M. Fragetta, M. Gasteiger, E. Melina, G. |
Date: | 2024 |
Title: | The Euro area government spending multiplier in demand- and supply-driven recessions |
Journal title: | Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics |
Volume: | N/A |
Reference: | Di Serio, M., Fragetta, M., Gasteiger, E., & Melina, G. (2024). The Euro area government spending multiplier in demand- and supply-driven recessions. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12626 |
ISSN: | 0305-9049 |
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): | 10.1111/obes.12626 |
Keywords: | Fiscal multiplier Business cycle Interacted panel VAR Factor models Euro area |
Abstract: | We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from 0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account. |
Peerreviewed: | yes |
Access type: | Embargoed Access |
Appears in Collections: | BRU-RI - Artigos em revistas científicas internacionais com arbitragem científica |
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