The effects of a demand forecast system on a company´s last-mile financial and operational efficiency performance: The Vintage Bazaar case study

Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the Last-Mile Financial and Operational Efficiency Performance of a Portuguese company in the fashion industry. Given the today´s growing uncertainty and risk of disruptions in business, especially in this industry, companies must invest in building agile supply chains that can easily adapt to this surrounding environment as well as to the costumer´s unsteady demand variability patterns. With demand forecasting being extremely interconnected with the company´s LM performance, this study proposes to evaluate the LM impact, through the implementation of Demand Forecasting tools. Data gathered from the company and customers served as an input for the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), a Multi-Criteria Decision- Making Analysis. Key findings were that, for either of the scenarios built based on the demand forecasting techniques, the 2nd and the 3rd, the outcomes were significantly more attractive that the company´s current business scenario, the “As-Is” Scenario. The most attractive scenario provided by the MACBETH System proved to be the 3rd, nonetheless the 2nd was considered most feasible and in accordance to the company´s medium-term objectives.