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Title: Assessing temporary speed restrictions and associated unavailability costs in railway infrastructure
Authors: Andrade, A. R.
Teixeira, P. F.
Keywords: Temporary speed restrictions
Railway maintenance
Statistical modeling
Negative binomial regression
Unavailability costs
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: Springer
Abstract: This paper analyses the occurrence of temporary speed restrictions in railway infrastructure associated with railway track geometry degradation. A negative binomial regression model is put forward to estimate the expected number of temporary speed restrictions, controlling for the main quality indicators of railway track geometry degradation and for the maintenance and renewal actions/decisions. The prediction of temporary speed restrictions provides a quantitative way to support the assessment of unavailability costs to railway users. A case study on the Lisbon–Oporto Portuguese line is explored, comparing three statistical models: the Poisson, the ‘over-dispersed’ Poisson and the proposed negative binomial regression. Main findings suggest that the main quality indicators for railway track geometry degradation are statistically significant variables, apart from the maintenance and renewal actions. Finally, a discussion on the impacts of the unavailability costs associated with temporary speed restrictions is also provided in a regulated railway context.
Peer reviewed: yes
DOI: 10.1007/s40999-016-0121-3
ISSN: 1735-0522
Accession number: WOS:000423131100008
Appears in Collections:BRU-RI - Artigos em revistas científicas internacionais com arbitragem científica

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