Latent populists activated? Party membership switching to the radical right

Abstract

Populist radical right (PRR) parties are expanding their grassroots despite widespread membership decline elsewhere. Yet little is known about who joins them and the implications of recruitment from other parties. This article compares former members of other parties (‘switchers’) with first-time members in Portugal's Chega, drawing on an original survey of thousands of members. The findings reveal a broadly homogeneous grassroots united around ideology and core PRR values. Differences between switchers and first-time members stem from the predominance of former right-wing partisans among switchers rather than from switching itself. Nonetheless, legacy effects persist in out-group affect: former right-wing members rate right-wing parties more positively and left-wing parties more negatively than former left-wing members, who display the opposite pattern. Overall, the results suggest that many switchers may have been ideologically predisposed toward the PRR and were activated by the emergence of a viable organizational supply. They also have important implications for understanding how PRR grassroots perceive party competition and coalition strategies in multiparty systems.