Strategic pathways for decarbonization: A data-driven typology to strengthen climate policy

Abstract

As global temperatures approach critical thresholds and emissions continue to rise, the urgency for strategic, accelerated decarbonization grows. The climate mitigation literature is vast, but evidence on how mitigation options cluster into overarching decarbonization pathways remains fragmented. Here, we use artificial intelligence–enabled text and citation analysis on an initial corpus of over one million scientific papers (2011–2021) to derive a data-driven typology of six recurrent decarbonization pathways: Technology Breakthrough, Electrification of Uses, Integrated Policy, Decarbonization of Electricity, Demand Reduction & Co-Benefits, and Land Use & Circularity. Rather than proposing new mitigation options, this typology organizes existing work into a small set of archetypal strategies and maps their prevalence across regions, disciplines, and policy orientations. For example, Electrification of Uses is most prominent in the EU27, while Technology Breakthrough dominates in China, the United States, and Japan. The analysis highlights synergies and complementarities between pathways, the scientific competencies that typically underpin them, and persistent gaps – particularly in Land Use & Circularity. We illustrate the policy relevance of the typology by comparing pathway profiles with stated climate policy directions, identifying areas where research and policy emphases are misaligned. This framework can support policymakers and researchers by benchmarking policy portfolios against the typology and highlighting research needs associated with national decarbonization goals.