Republic of Guinea: an analysis of current drivers of change

Abstract

Since gaining independence from France in 1958, Guinea has remained relatively stable and has never experienced violent conflict. Until the bloodless military coup of 2008, it had had only two governments: the socialist administration of Sékou Touré (1958-1984) and the liberal regime of Lansana Conté (1984-2008). Despite some moves towards a more democratic system, including the adoption by referendum of a new constitution in 1990, the latter years of the Conté government were marked by bad governance, human rights violations, weak rule of law and impunity. This was compounded by the prolonged illness of the president, whose fitness to govern was widely doubted, and by 2003 there were fears that Guinea could become yet another failed state. The military junta headed by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara that assumed power following Conté’s death in December 2008 promised a transition to democracy but hopes were shattered on 28 September 2009 when a peaceful demonstration was brutally suppressed, leaving 150 people dead. Nevertheless, when Dadis Camara was replaced by General Sékouba Konaté following an assassination attempt, transitional institutions were established to pave the way for elections. Despite political turmoil and technical challenges, Alpha Condé, a longstanding opposition leader, was elected president in December 2010 after what were considered to be the first ever credible elections in Guinea.