Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/30012
Autoria: | Boldea, O. Cornea-Madeira, A. Madeira, J. |
Data: | 2023 |
Título próprio: | Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: A dynamic intensity model |
Título da revista: | Econometrics Journal |
Volume: | 26 |
Número: | 3 |
Paginação: | 444 - 466 |
Referência bibliográfica: | Boldea, O., Cornea-Madeira, A., & Madeira, J. (2023). Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: A dynamic intensity model. Econometrics Journal, 26(3), 444-466. https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utad004 |
ISSN: | 1368-4221 |
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): | 10.1093/ectj/utad004 |
Palavras-chave: | COVID-19 Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo NPI Vaccines Booster Variants of concern Omicron |
Resumo: | In this paper, we estimate the path of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections in England from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of 2021. We employ a dynamic intensity model, where the mean intensity conditional on the past depends both on past intensity of infections and past realized infections. The model parameters are time-varying, and we employ a multiplicative specification along with logistic transition functions to disentangle the time-varying effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions, of different variants, and of protection (waning) of vaccines/boosters. Our model results indicate that earlier interventions and vaccinations are key to containing an infection wave. We consider several scenarios that account for more infectious variants and different protection levels of vaccines/boosters. These scenarios suggest that, as vaccine protection wanes, containing a new wave in infections and an associated increase in hospitalizations in the near future may require further booster campaigns and/or nonpharmaceutical interventions. |
Arbitragem científica: | yes |
Acesso: | Acesso Aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: | BRU-RI - Artigos em revistas científicas internacionais com arbitragem científica |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Tamanho | Formato | |
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article_96161.pdf | 1,18 MB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |
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