The Russian influence strategy in its contested neighbourhood

Abstract

The collapse of the Soviet Union has been followed by a series of conflicts between the Russian Federation and its neighbors. Although some of these conflicts have been fought at the kinetic level, they were justified by Moscow through information warfare activities and supported by influence operations. This chapter, which includes an extensive survey of the literature on the topic, aims to investigate the hybrid warfare strategy carried out by the Russian Federation in its 'sphere of influence' over the last three decades — the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), Ukraine (Crimea and Donbass, i.e. Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics), Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and Moldova (Transnistria) — and to assess the effectiveness of the Russian (dis)information strategy. The essay focuses on the nationalist discourse and the pro-Russia narrative.