Calm after the storm? Portugal one year after the end of the adjustment program

Abstract

One year after the end of the adjustment program, Portugal seems to be passing through a period of calm after three years of a storm that lead the country many years backward in economic activity, employment, investment, and social conditions. The change of economic climate is largely due to the improvement in external conditions, especially the abundant liquidity provided by the ECB since 2012. However, Portugal still has a long way to go before recovering from pre-crisis levels of economic activity. Additionally, there are reasons to suspect that the recent macroeconomic improvements may prove to be unsustainable, while a sustainable recovery of the Portuguese economy is being hampered by the high levels of public debt and private sector debt (especially among non-financial corporations).